Explained: WTC Final 2025 Latest Qualification Scenario for India
Team India under serious pressure in best qualification scenario explanation for the Indian team for the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final.
12 years and 2 latest Test match defeats in a row, India’s Test dominance at home comes to a sad end. 2012 was the last time India lost a Test series at home. It was against England under the leadership of MS Dhoni. But the 12 years of home dominance finally comes to an end as India lose back-to-back Test matches against New Zealand. Having started the series as the favorites, India now trail the Test series 0-2 with one more match to go.
While winning and losing is a part and parcel of the game, what’s more concerning is that India’s qualification chances for the World Test Championship 2025 final are under huge threat. It was all going pretty fine before the New Zealand series with India cruising in the WTC standings with a PCT of 70%+. But two defeats in a row have opened the table crazily. While India are still in contention, Australia and South Africa aren’t far behind in the qualification race.
India now have just one Test match left vs New Zealand, and then they play the most-important India vs Australia 2024 BG Trophy. Needless to say, the two losses have made the 5-match BG Trophy even more important. South Africa, who have 4 Home Tests and 1 away Test vs Bangladesh are also in a great situation to qualify. So, with these three teams in strong contention to qualify, let’s look at the ICC WTC 2025 Final latest qualification scenario for Team India.
World Test Championship (WTC) Final 2025 Qualification Scenario
Team India’s Current WTC Status
Mat: 13 // Win: 8 // Draw: 1 // Loss: 4 // Points: 98 // PCT: 62.82%
Pending Fixtures: NZ (H*1) & Aus (A*5)
5 Wins & 1 Loss
If India are able to win 5 of their remaining 6 matches with 4 wins coming against Australia, the qualification won’t pose any challenge to the Indian team, and they will be able to play the WTC final without South Africa or Sri Lanka’s results. If India win 5 of their remaining 6 matches, their PCT becomes 69.3%. In this scenario, Australia will be able to win just 1 against us, and that way they can at max have a PCT of 55.3. South Africa would then need just 5/6 wins or 4/6 with Australia suffering one more loss against Sri Lanka.
4 Wins & 2 Loss
If India win 4 matches from here with with Australia able to win two matches against us, then India’s PCT becomes 64%, and Australia’s PCT becomes 60.5%. In this scenario, if South Africa win even 5 of their 6 matches, India and South Africa should mostly play the final. If South Africa lose two, their PCT becomes 52.8%. In this scenario, South Africa will only be able to qualify if Australia lose both their matches against Sri Lanka.
3 Wins & 3 Loss
If India are able to win 3 of their remaining 6 matches with just 2 coming against Australia, then India’s PCT becomes 58.77%, and Australia’s PCT becomes 65.79% if they win both matches against Sri Lanka. In this scenario, India would be hoping South Africa lose at least two matches, or Australia lose both their matches against Sri Lanka. Only then, India will be able to qualify for the WTC Final. However, this looks difficult given SA’s fixtures, and Australia losing two against Sri Lanka.
2 Wins & 4 Loss
Now, 3 wins were already making India’s qualification tougher, but with 2 wins from their remaining 6 matches, things look even more scary for the Indian team. With 2 wins from 6 matches, India will be at a PCT of 53.5%. In this scenario, if South Africa lose two from here, India and Australia should play the final. The only positive point here is South Africa, who can fall victim to at least one loss from here, and if Sri Lanka and Pakistan pose a challenge to them at home, South Africa can pack their bags then.
Conclusion:
So, that’s about the best possible qualification scenario for India for the ICC WTC 2025 Final. Overall, India’s chances have reduced after the two defeats against NZ. But all is not lost so far. While winning against New Zealand will keep India’s chances alive, if, by any chance, India aren’t able to win, India will have no option but to go bang hard against Australia in the 5 matches. The team will have to inspire confidence from the 2022 and 2022 India’s tour of Australia.
